From Here on Out on the Left

Obama currently holds the leads in pledged delegates.  There are still some delegates left to count, but it seems likely that after they are all allocated Obama’s delegate lead will actually increase by a few votes.

That is good news, as the Obama campaign said before Super Tuesday if they were behind by only about 100 delegates they thought they could win the nomination.

That’s not counting the “super delegates,” but they could change, and Obama is still only going to be down by about sixty delegates or so even if those are included.

Also, the Clinton campaign is having trouble raising as much money as Obama.  They downplayed the fundraising difference, but Hillary Clinton admitted to “loaning” her campaign $5 million, and staffers are going without pay.  McCain showed us why this isn’t a death knell for a candidate (although it should be noted most of his major monetary problems were before voting started to occur), but it certainly means that something is seriously wrong with Clinton’s war chest.  Maybe she should borrow some money from the Clinton Foundation.  And she is sending surrogates out to campaign for her in upcoming primaries, which include Chelsea (how many times have you heard glowing admiration for Chelsea Clinton?) and Bill (and we know how well that worked out in South Carolina).

I’m starting to get more confident, but not entirely so.  Maybe it’s the continuous letdown of Chicago sports teams that’s drained optimism from my essence.  And Obama is, after all, from Chicago.

However, by all accounts, even the Clinton campaigns’, Obama should do very well in the month of February.  Up next are primaries this Saturday in Louisiana, Washington, and Nebraska.  Obama has won most of the states by Louisiana and Nebraska, and Washington is expected to go to him, as well.  Next Tuesday is another cleverly named primary; either the “Potomac Primaries” or “Chesapeake Tuesday” depending upon where you get your news from, which includes Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C.  Obama is thought to win all those, as well.  In the following weeks there are primaries in Hawaii, where Obama grew up, and Wisconsin.  So out of these eight states, the only two which the Clinton campaign can really be too optimistic about are Washington and Wisconsin.  It could end up with an Obama sweep of all eight.

However, on March 4 there are primaries in Ohio and Texas, states which Clinton has held big leads in.  These are obviously pretty large states, many more delegates than Nebraska, for example, so I am a little nervous about this.  Obama has been much, much better at nicking away at Hillary’s leads than she’s been at expanding them, so over the next month I expect Obama’s numbers to crawl ever closer to Hillary’s.  Truth is, I find it hard to believe that Texas could go for a Clinton.  But it does have a very large latino population.  I’m not sure how many of these latinos are legally allowed to vote (I just coined the term “underground highway.”  Just now.  Use it a lot, and inflate my ego), but my sources tell me a lot.  Obama has made some headway in the latino population, but it hasn’t been much.  As for Ohio; I’m through even guessing about Ohio and Florida (did you see some Floridians actually showed up to vote Tuesday?  Florida was named after the Spanish word for “flowers.”  Some people stop to smell them, they stop to smoke them.)

I will say this; if Hillary Clinton has big wins in those two states it will be a huge boost in her favor.  If Obama wins one of the states or comes close to an even split of delegates, I think that will just about wrap things up for him.  That is assuming, of course, that the delegates before then go as much in his favor as even the Clinton campaign seems to predict.


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